Author Topic: Fantastic article on survivorship bias and other helpful things  (Read 1966 times)

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Reives

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Fantastic article on survivorship bias and other helpful things
« on: January 07, 2015, 02:38:28 AM »
I know this is quite long, but it's one of the most practical and helpful articles I've ran into. The intro's rather long; but even if you just scroll down and start around where the .gif of the bomber plane getting shot down is, it'd still work well:

http://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05/23/survivorship-bias/


It also quotes an interesting study on luck that helps to keep in mind for the day-to-day:

Quote
Over the course of 10 years, Wiseman followed the lives of 400 subjects of all ages and professions. He found them after he placed ads in newspapers asking for people who thought of themselves as very lucky or very unlucky. He had them keep diaries and perform tests in addition to checking in on their lives with interviews and observations. In one study, he asked subjects to look through a newspaper and count the number of photographs inside. The people who labeled themselves as generally unlucky took about two minutes to complete the task. The people who considered themselves as generally lucky took an average of a few seconds. Wiseman had placed a block of text printed in giant, bold letters on the second page of the newspaper that read, “Stop counting. There are 43 photographs in this newspaper.” Deeper inside, he placed a second block of text just as big that read, “Stop counting, tell the experimenter you have seen this and win $250.” The people who believed they were unlucky usually missed both.


Sorry this post's kinda jumbo'ed; just wanted to share something that I found really helpful and insightful. :) And for those interested in those things, Daniel Kahneman (which he quoted there) also has some fascinating works on related subjects -- this being one of my favourite talks that I found to make sense of so many things:

Daniel Kahneman: The riddle of experience vs. memory


Roxaszu

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Re: Fantastic article on survivorship bias and other helpful things
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2015, 11:32:38 AM »
So, Basically.
Human's Lucky and Unlucky is based on their consciousness and their awareness about the opportunity around them, and It's all lead back to the person, Either they wanna be Lucky or not ...?
Hmmmm, That's interesting. :deepstuff:

I'm not totally clearly read the whole page yet, I guess I'll give it another shot after having a good night sleep (And edit this tomorrow) and regain my focus.  :facepalm:
Nice share though, Reives.

About the video, I got a lot of things too that start to clear out and make sense now...
It's looks like I have seen "Ted" TV Program before, But where is it, Hmmmm ~
Btw, What is exactly "TED" program is all about ? (Just curious)

Abrom

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Re: Fantastic article on survivorship bias and other helpful things
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2015, 07:37:22 PM »
Quote
So, Basically.
Human's Lucky and Unlucky is based on their consciousness and their awareness about the opportunity around them, and It's all lead back to the person, Either they wanna be Lucky or not ...?
Well, the way I see this is that by asking for lucky and unlucky people, they're pretty much asking for happy or negative/depressed people. I've seen studies about how happy animals tend to be much better at problem solving than stressed animals. So, stress pretty much just leads to more stress, where happiness leads to more happiness.
River: *Drops hacky sack*
River: "Can you throw this is as far as where Anya's at?"
John: "I can try."
John: "(Now I'll amaze her with my feat of strength.)"
John: *Throws hacky sack into ocean*
River: *Runs to cliff edge*
John: "River! Stop looking at my awesome throw and get away from that ledge!"
River: *Backs into John and silently sits down*
John: "(...Nailed it.)"